A stationary series has constant mean and variance over time. Rolling stats stay flat. Non-stationary series have drifting mean or growing variance - standard models break.
Stationarity - Interactive Visualization
Stationarity is the assumption that statistical properties (mean, variance, autocovariance) are constant over time. Most time series models require stationary input. An AR(1) process with |φ| < 1 is stationary. A random walk (φ = 1) is non-stationary - it drifts and its variance grows without bound. Rolling mean and variance reveal non-stationarity visually.
Compare AR(1) (stationary) vs random walk vs trend series
Rolling mean and std overlay reveals drifting properties
Adjust AR coefficient φ: approach 1 to see near-unit-root behavior
See ADF test statistic change with stationarity
Foundation for ARIMA, Granger causality, and financial time series
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